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Prediction for CME (2015-11-16T03:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-11-16T03:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/9706/-1
CME Note: CME associated with a second filament eruption visible in SDO 193/171/304 starting around 02UT.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-11-18T19:24Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-11-18T12:00Z (-6.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 16/11/2015 0623Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 850
Longitude (deg): W12
Latitude (deg): S08
Half-angular width (deg): 24

Notes: Double CME, more than one cone file, this is the most significant (related to Filament eruption #2) which catches up filament 1. May be accelerated by CH24 HSS.
Space weather advisor: Mark Seltzer

Lead Time: 48.57 hour(s)
Difference: 7.40 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2015-11-16T18:50Z

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